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June consumer sentiment drops to six-month low

(Reuters) - Consumer sentiment dropped to a six-month low in June as Americans' view of the economy soured, a survey released on Friday showed.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment fell to 73.2 in June from 79.3 in May.

It was the lowest level since December and fell short of economists' expectations for the index to hold at the same level as June's preliminary reading of 74.1.

The deterioration in consumers' attitudes came mostly from households with incomes above $75,000; sentiment among lower-income households was little changed, according to the survey.

"While the overall level of consumer sentiment is substantially above last summer's low -- which would normally indicate a growth slowdown, not a downturn -- the buying plans of upper-income households have also sharply declined," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

"Since these households account for a large share of total spending, if the declines continue in the months ahead, it could have a substantial impact on total spending."

Wealthier households were also less upbeat about their income prospects, with 24 percent expecting their finances to improve in the year ahead, down from 37 percent in May.

Just 9 percent of all households expected to see gains in their income once adjusted for inflation.

The overall measure of buying plans for durables and vehicles fell to 125 from 132.

The data was eclipsed in financial markets by an agreement from euro zone leaders to allow rescue funds to be used to stabilize the region's banks.

"It wasn't a huge miss, and the average investor should be able to look beyond this and see that we continue to recover," said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

News of economic developments heard by consumers was increasingly negative. When asked about their expectations for the unemployment rate, survey respondents were more likely to expect increases rather than declines.

Consumers were also more likely to report economic conditions had weakened recently and less likely to expect them to improve in the coming year.

The survey's barometer of current economic conditions fell to 81.5 from 87.2, and the gauge of consumer expectations slid to 67.8 from 74.3. Both indexes were at their lowest levels since December.

The survey's one-year inflation expectation rose for the first time since March to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent, while the survey's five-to-10-year inflation outlook climbed to 2.8 percent from 2.7 percent.


From Reuters
 

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Stock Rise, Euro Gains Most This Year on EU; Bonds Climb

Stocks rose, the euro strengthened the most this year and Spanish bonds rallied after European leaders reached an agreement that alleviated concern banks will fail. Commodities jumped as the dollar sank.

The MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) climbed 1.1 percent at 9:25 a.m. in London and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1.6 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures increased 1.3 percent. The euro appreciated 1 percent after rising by the most since Nov. 30. Spain’s two-year yield plunged the most since Aug. 8, with the German 10-year bund yield jumping to the highest in more than eight weeks. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials rose the most in three weeks.

After talks ended at 4:30 a.m. in Brussels today, leaders of the 17 euro countries dropped requirements that taxpayers get preferred creditor status on aid to Spain’s banks and opened the way to recapitalize lenders directly without bailout funds. More than $4.9 trillion was erased from global equity values this quarter amid deepening concern the debt crisis will worsen and stifle the global recovery.

“It was a moment of high drama,” said Jonathan Garner, Hong Kong-based chief strategist at Morgan Stanley. “France sided with Spain and Italy and all three of those countries made it very clear they weren’t pursuing with the long-term goals around fiscal union and or growth measures unless one dealt with the short-term problem of stability in the bond markets and the Spanish banks problem.”

The Stoxx 600 (SXXP)’s advance extended this month’s rally to 3.8 percent. The gauge has still retreated 5.5 percent this quarter. Italy’s UniCredit SpA, Spain’s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and France’s BNP Paribas SA climbed more than 5 percent today as a gauge of banks in the Stoxx 600 increased the most in more than two weeks.
RIM Loss

The gain in U.S. index futures indicated the S&P 500 will pare this quarter’s retreat to 5.6 percent. Research In Motion Ltd. plunged 14 percent in German trading today after posting a loss and delaying the next BlackBerry operating system.

A report today may show U.S. consumer spending stalled in May as slowing job growth and subdued wage gains. Household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, were unchanged after a 0.3 percent gain in April, according to the median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Other data are forecast to show that business activity in the U.S. expanded at a slower pace in June and consumer sentiment dropped to a six-month low.
Emerging Markets

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) rose 2 percent, the biggest gain since Jan. 17. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of Hong Kong-traded Chinese shares jumped 2.6 percent and benchmark indexes in Russia, Hungary and India gained at least 2 percent. The yield on ruble-denominated government bonds due in 2018 fell 10 basis points to 8.23 percent, the biggest drop since June 15, after Russia’s Financial Markets Service said it will give foreign depositaries including Euroclear Bank SA direct access to domestic sovereign debt markets.

The euro surged as much as 1.7 percent against the yen to 100.52. Its gain versus the dollar left it 5.9 percent weaker since the end of March, on course for its worst quarterly performance since September. The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, tumbled 0.8 percent. The Australian and New Zealand dollars both jumped 1.2 percent against the greenback. The yen weakened against all 16 of its most traded peers.

Crude in New York led gains in the GSCI index, rising 2.6 percent to $79.64 a barrel before an embargo on Iran starts. The EU agreed to ban the purchase, transportation, financing and insurance of Iranian oil starting July l.

Natural gas jumped 2.2 percent and copper gained 2 percent. The GSCI has dropped 16 percent in the second quarter, the most since the final three months of 2008. New York oil has declined 23 percent this quarter.

From : bloomberg
 

Monetary developments in the euro area




29 June 2012









PRESS RELEASE
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA: MAY 2012


The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 2.9% in May 2012, from 2.5% in April 2012.1  The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from March 2012 to May 2012 stood at 2.8%, compared with 2.7% in the period from February 2012 to April 2012.


Twelve-month percentage changes; (adjusted for seasonal
and end-of-month calendar effects)
MARCH
2012
APRIL
2012
MAY
2012
MARCH 2012 - MAY 2012
(AVERAGE)

M3

3.0

2.5

2.9

2.8

M1

2.8

1.8

3.3

2.6

Loans to the private sector

0.6

0.2

-0.1

0.3
Loans to the private sector, adjusted for sales and securitisation

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.8


M3 components

Regarding the main components of M3, the annual growth rate of M1 increased to 3.3% in May 2012, from

1.8% in April. The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) decreased  to 2.3% in May, from 3.3% in the previous month. The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) increased to 3.4% in May, from 2.5% in April. Among the deposits included in M3, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by households stood at 2.4% in May, compared with 2.5% in the previous month, while the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-financial corporations was less negative at -0.2% in May, from -0.8% in the previous month. Finally, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-monetary financial intermediaries  (excludinginsurance corporations and pension funds) increased to 0.4% in May, from -0.8% in the previous month.


Counterparts to M3: credit and loans




 The annual growth rates presented in this press release refer to aggregatesadjusted for seasonal and end-of-month calendar effects.


- 2 -


Turning to the main counterparts of M3 on the asset side of the consolidated balance sheet of Monetary

Financial Institutions (MFIs), the annual growth rate of total credit granted to euro area residents stood at

1.5% in May 2012, compared with 1.4% in the previous month. The annual growth rate of credit extended to general government increased to 9.0% in May, from 7.6% in April, while the annual growth rate of credit extended to the private sector decreased to -0.2% in May, from 0.0% in the previous month. Among the components of credit to the private sector, the annual growth rate of loans decreased to -0.1% in May, from 0.2% in the previous month (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation2, the rate decreased to 0.4%, from 0.8% in the previous month). The annual growth rate of loans to households decreased to 0.3% in May, from 0.5% in April (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation, the rate decreased to 1.3%, from 1.5% in the  previous  month).  The  annual  growth  rate  of  lending  for  house  purchase,  the  most  important component of householdloans, decreased to 0.7% in May, from 1.0% in the previous month. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations decreased to 0.1% in May, from 0.4% in the previous month (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation, the rate decreased to 0.2% in May,  from 0.6% in the previous  month).  Finally,  the  annual  growth  rate  of  loans  to  non-monetary  financial  intermediaries (excluding insurance corporations and pension funds) was more negative at -2.1% in May, from -1.4% in the previous month.


Other counterparts

Over the 12 months up to May 2012, the net external asset position of the euro area MFI sector decreased by 36 billion,compared with a decrease of 39 billionover the 12 months up to April. The annual growth rate of longer-term financial liabilities of the MFI sector decreased to -0.1% in May, from
0.7% in April.


Notes
 Further predefined tables, statistical data and methodological notes, as well as the advance release calendar,are available on the ECB’s website at  http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money/aggregates/aggr/html/index.en.html.




European Central Bank
Directorate Communications, Press and Information Division
Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Tel.: +49 69 1344 7455, Fax: +49 69 1344 7404
Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.












2   Adjusted for the derecognition of loans from the MFIs’ statistical balance sheets due to their sale or securitisation.


TABLE 1



MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA: MAY 2012
DATA ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL EFFECTS (EUR billions and annual percentage changesa))




END-OF- MONTH LEVEL

MONTHLY FLOW b)

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
MAY
2012
MARCH
2012
APRIL
2012
MAY
2012
MARCH
2012
APRIL
2012
MAY
2012
COMPONENTS OF M3 c)
(1)         M3 (= items 1.3, 1.6 and 1.11) (1.1)            Currency in circulation
(1.2)             Overnight deposits
(1.3)     M1 (items 1.1 and 1.2)

(1.4)             Deposits with an agreed maturity of up to two years (1.5)            Deposits redeemable at notice of up to three months (1.6)         Other short term deposits (items 1.4 and 1.5)
(1.7)     M2 (items 1.3 and 1.6)

(1.8)             Repurchase agreements
(1.9)             Money market fund shares/units
(1.10)           Debt securities issued with a maturity of up to two years
(1.11)       Marketable instruments (items 1.8, 1.9 and 1.10)


9911

857
4016
4872

1888
1997
3885
8757

422
513
219
1154


56                     -48                      86

-5                         2                         7
34                     -58                      65
29                     -56                      72

4                      12                   -34
7                         7                      14
11                      19                     -20
40                     -37                      52

-19                       -9                      35
10                         4                      11
25                       -6                     -12
16                     -12                      34


3.0                       2.5                     2.9

5.5                       5.5                     5.5
2.2                       1.0                     2.9
2.8                       1.8                     3.3

3.9                       3.9                     1.6
2.5                       2.7                     3.0
3.2                       3.3                     2.3
3.0                       2.5                     2.9

4.3                      -0.7                    -1.3
-3.1                      -1.6                     1.6
20.2                    21.5                   21.3
3.7                       2.5                     3.4
COUNTERPARTS OF M3
MFI liabilities:

(2)         Holdings against central government  d)

(3)         Longer-term financial liabilities vis-à-vis other euro area residents  (= items 3.1 to 3.4)
(3.1)          Deposits with an agreed maturity of over two years
(3.2)          Deposits redeemable at notice of over three months (3.3)         Debt securities issued with a maturity of over two years (3.4)         Capital and reserves

MFI assets:

(4)         Credit to euro area residents (= items 4.1 and 4.2) (4.1)        Credit to general government
Loans
Securities other than shares
(4.2)          Credit to other euro area residents
Loans e)
loans adjusted for sales and securitisation f)
Securities other than shares
Shares and other equities

(5)         Net external assets

(6)         Other counterparts of M3 (residual)
(= M3 + items 2, 3 - items 4, 5)



312

7645

2483
113
2756
2293



16686
3263
1168
2095
13424
11166
ND
1521
737

941

240



-9                     -30                      22

-36                       -4                    -42

-29                     -12                   -32
-1                         1                       -1
-25                       -9                    -28
18                      16                      18



36                     -57                      33
31                       -7                      32
3                         0                        9
29                       -6                      22
4                     -51                        1
-6                     -21                     -11
-5                     -22                     -11
-4                     -14                         6
14                     -16                         7

-2                     -13                      12

-22                     -12                      21



11.1                     -4.1                   10.7

1.3                       0.7                    -0.1

1.2                       0.2                    -1.1
-5.2                      -4.6                    -5.1
-2.5                      -3.5                    -4.6
7.0                       7.3                     7.4



1.8                       1.4                     1.5
7.4                       7.6                     9.0
-4.3                      -2.9                    -0.9
15.3                    14.4                   15.4
0.5                       0.0                    -0.2
0.6                       0.2                    -0.1
1.2                       0.8                     0.4
1.1                       0.3                     0.6
-2.3                      -4.5                    -3.4

ND                      ND                   ND ND                     ND                   ND









a) Figures may not add up due to rounding. The information in this table is based on consolidated balance sheet statistics reported by monetary financial institutions
(MFIs). These include the Eurosystem, credit institutions and money market funds located in the euro area.
b) Monthly difference in levelsadjusted for reclassifications, exchange rate variations, other revaluations and any other changes which do not arise from transactions. c) Liabilitiesof MFIs and specificunits of the central government (post offices,treasury) vis-à-vis non-MFI euro area residents excluding central government.
d) Includes holdings of the central government of deposits with the MFI sector and of securities issued by the MFI sector.
e) For further breakdowns see Table 4.
f) Adjusted for the derecognition of loans from the MFI statistical balance sheet due to their sale or securitisation.


TABLE 2

BREAKDOWN OF DEPOSITS IN M3 BY HOLDING SECTOR AND TYPE: MAY 2012
DATA ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL EFFECTS (EUR billions and annual percentage changesa))


END-OF- MONTH LEVEL

MONTHLY FLOW b)

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
MAY
2012
MARCH
2012
APRIL
2012
MAY
2012
MARCH
2012
APRIL
2012
MAY
2012

BREAKDOWN OF DEPOSITS IN M3
Total deposits (=items 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) (1)        Deposits placed by householdsc)
(1.1)             Overnight deposits
(1.2)             Deposits with an agreed maturity of up to two years (1.3)            Deposits redeemable at notice of up to three months (1.4)            Repurchase agreements

(2)         Deposits placed by non-financial corporations

(2.1)             Overnight deposits
(2.2)             Deposits with an agreed maturity of up to two years (2.3)            Deposits redeemable at notice of up to three months (2.4)            Repurchase agreements

(3)         Deposits placed by non-monetary financial intermediaries excluding  insurance corporations and pension funds

(3.1)             Overnight deposits
(3.2)             Deposits with an agreed maturity of up to two years (3.3)            Deposits redeemable at notice of up to three months (3.4)            Repurchase agreements
of which: with central counterpartiesd)

(4)         Deposits placed by insurance corporations and pension funds

(5)         Deposits placed by other general government



8323

5166

2272
987
1891
16

1561

1036
433
78
15

1074


416
271
14
374
291

212

309



25                    -48                      81

20                      15                         3

-1                      10                         5
15                        1                     -10
6                         6                       11
-1                        -2                       -2

-2                     -12                         6

3                       -3                       14
-5                        -8                    -11
0                         1                         3
0                       -1                         0

-6                     -49                      56


29                    -61                      35
-14                       17                    -14
1                         0                       -1
-22                       -4                       36
-10                         2                       35

-6                         5                         5

20                       -8                      11



2.8                     2.0                       2.4

2.2                     2.5                       2.4

-0.4                     0.2                        0.4
9.6                     9.5                       8.2
2.5                     2.8                       2.9
-36.4                 -45.1                   -52.7

-0.2                   -0.8                      -0.2

1.1                     1.0                       3.3
-1.8                   -3.3                      -6.4
-6.7                   -5.3                      -1.6
-4.2                 -19.0                    -25.4

4.4                    -0.8                       0.4


16.9                     2.2                      12.3
-15.1                 -12.0                   -18.0
32.0                   37.3                     19.4
7.9                     5.5                       5.3
14.6                   12.5                        8.3

16.8                   14.0                     18.2

14.9                   12.5                     15.4









a) Figures may not add up due to rounding. The information in this table is based on consolidated balance sheetstatistics reported by monetary financial institutions
(MFIs). These include the Eurosystem, credit institutions and money marketfunds located in the euro area.
b) Monthlydifference in levelsadjusted for reclassifications, exchange rate variations, other revaluations and any other changes which do not arise from transactions. c) Includes depositsby non-profit institutions serving households.
d) The series is not adjusted for seasonal effects.


TABLE 3

CONTRIBUTIONS OF M3 COMPONENTS TO THE M3 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: MAY 2012
DATA ADJUSTED FOR SEASONALEFFECTS (contributions in terms of the M3 annual percentage changea))



MARCH 2012

APRIL 2012

MAY 2012

(1)         M1

(1.1 of which : Currency
(1.2 of which : Overnight deposits

(2)         M2 - M1 (= other short-term deposits)

(3)         M3 - M2 (= short-term marketable instruments)

1.4

0.5
0.9

1.2

0.4

0.9

0.5
0.4

1.3

0.3

1.6

0.5
1.2

0.9

0.4
(4)         M3 (= items 1, 2 and 3)
3.0
2.5
2.9
a) Figures may not add up due to rounding.

TABLE 4

BREAKDOWN OF LOANS BY BORROWING SECTOR, TYPE AND ORIGINAL MATURITY: MAY 2012
DATA ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL EFFECTS (EUR billions and annual percentage changesa))


END-OF- MONTH LEVEL

MONTHLY FLOW b)

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
MAY
2012
MARCH
2012
APRIL
2012
MAY
2012
MARCH
2012
APRIL
2012
MAY
2012

BREAKDOWN OF LOANS c)

(1)         Loans to households d)
loans adjusted for sales and securitisation e)

(1.1 Credit for consumption (1.2)    Lending for house purchase (1.3 Other lending
of which: sole proprietors f)

(2)         Loans to non-financial corporations
loans adjusted for sales and securitisation e)

(2.1 up to 1 year
(2.2 over 1 year and up to 5 years
(3.3 over 5 years

(3)         Loans to non-monetary financial intermediaries except  insurance corporations and pension funds
of which: reverse repos to central counterparties f)

(4)         Loans to insurance corporations and pension funds



5252
ND

621
3802
830
418

4698
ND

1150
845
2704

1133

181

82



7                             7                           2
6                            6                           1

-2                           -2                           1
10                             7                           1
-2                             1                         -1
-1                           -1                         -1

-8                             7                       -10
-7                            7                         -9

-5                          18                         -5
0                           -1                         -1
-2                         -10                         -4

-8                         -28                         -4

2                         -11                           6

4                           -7                           1



0.6                      0.5                        0.3
1.7                      1.5                        1.3

-2.1                    -2.4                      -1.9
1.1                      1.0                        0.7
0.7                      0.7                        0.1
2.0                      1.7                        1.0

0.3                      0.4                        0.1
0.5                      0.6                        0.2

-0.4                      0.9                        0.2
-2.9                    -2.2                      -2.5
1.6                      1.1                        0.8

2.3                    -1.4                      -2.1

34.4                   18.4                      10.3

-0.2                    -6.5                      -6.3









a) Figures may not add up due to rounding.
b) Monthly difference in levels adjusted for write-offs/write-downs, reclassifications, exchangerate variations and any other changes which do not arise from transactions. c) Loansgranted by monetary financial institutions (MFIs) to non-MFI euro area residents excluding general government.
d) Includes loans to non-profit institutions serving households.
e) Adjusted for the derecognition of loans from the MFI statistical balance sheet due to their sale or securitisation. f) The series is not adjusted for seasonal effects.




From ECB